Macroeconomic factors

Macroeconomic factors potentially affecting the Bank’s performance


Domestic demand will
be the key driver of
the economic growth in
Poland in 2015

GDP growth by approx.3.6%

According to the Bank, the macroeconomic situation shall slowly but steadily improve in 2015. The economic growth rate should increase to 3.5-3.6% of GDP. Domestic demand shall continue to grow, while the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and poor economic growth in the Eurozone shall further hamper export of goods and services. An increase in internal demand shall result from a growth in both consumption and investments. Consumption should be supported by further improvement of the labor market standing (payroll and employment growth) and with deflation, which will maintain at least through the first half of the year and increase the purchasing power of salaries. The increasing interest in household consumer loans due to attractive interest offered should also improve consumption. The lenient monetary policy to be continued by the Monetary Policy Council and disbursement of EU funds for 2014-2020 Perspective should positively affect the investment level. The Bank expects that at the end of 2015 the reference rate will remain at 1.50%.

New regulations will also apply and they will affect financial performance of the banking sector in Poland and the Group, in particular:


Moreover, works and negotiations have been carried out on the following issues:

Other challenges for the Polish banking sector in 2015 may include:

  • Risk of deflation in Poland lasting longer than Q3 2014 and increasing due to a drop in global prices of supplies (including crude oil) and agricultural products. In such a case, Monetary Policy Council may further reduce interest rates, including the lombard rate. Reducing interest rate to another record level would strongly affect banks’ revenues.
  • Fed discontinuing its easement policy faster than expected. This would have an adverse effect on the exchange rate of PLN and value of domestic treasury securities. It would also lead to higher costs of servicing public debt and limited possibility to finance business investments.
  • Translation of mortgage loans granted in CHF in recent years. Possible mass translation of loans granted in CHF would force banks to purchase large amounts of the Swiss currency, thus resulting in devaluation of PLN. Rapid devaluation of PLN vs. CHF and other currencies would result in imbalance on financial markets, threaten the stability of the financial system and the economy.
  • Further reduction of interest rates by Swiss Central Bank (SNB). Although this would reduce the value of CHF vs. other currencies, to include PLN, and improve lenders' ability to pay their liabilities to banks, LIBOR CHF rates getting more and more negative would affect banks holding large portfolios of CHF-denominated loans.


Annual Report 2014 - Bank Pocztowy